Chatto leads unofficial tally for Governor
Incumbent governor Edgar Chatto leads the unofficial tally for Governor of Bohol.
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Firemen extinguish grass fire on Election Day
Firemen arrived and extinguished a small grass fire earlier today at Baguio Drive ab about 10:55AM. Residents near the area had tried to extinguish the fire using pails of water. A PPCRV Poll Watcher passed by the area and reported the incident to TaRSIER 117. The emergency hotline operator dispatched the fire department to the scene.
The portion where the grass fire occurred is used as storage are for spare concrete electric poles of Bohol Light Company, Inc.
No damage to property has been reported although the electric poles may be compromised due to the heat sudden cooling as the fire was extinguished.
Go out and vote!
By: Jerome Auza
In all the elections since I was old enough to understand politics, I have never seen so much divisiveness among the Filipinos during an election. I saw arguements with lawyers, priests, professionals of various backgrounds for and against certain candidates. Social media has made all the bickering even more intense.
One thing for sure, there is already a change that I can observe. For the first time, I have heard many people who say that the expected “uwan-uwan”, “inangayan” and other names we sugarcoat the act of vote buying, will not affect their choice of candidates.
I have seen on social media several posts that shame candidates who still do vote buying. At the same time, there is one national candidate who is keen on not buying votes. Indeed, I can say that the Filipino voters have matured already and have felt that they can control the destiny of our country through their sacred vote.
In Talibon Diocese, the clergy is actively campaigning against vote buying and this is something new because in the past, we only hear it in the sermons but now, you can see posters with strongly worded messages reminding the people about the sanctity of their vote. For sure there are many more parishes and dioceses throughout the country that are doing the same.
I envision a Philippines in the near future where vote buying will become a thing of the past. My hope is that the Filipino people will no longer need to accept offers of vote buying because they don’t need to accept the small amount of money because they have something to eat anyway every day.
On May 9, let us all go out and vote. Let us choose the leaders that we think can lead this country to build on the gains already achieved by the previous administrations while fixing what still needs fixing. Let us vote because we sincerely believe that they are the right candidates rather than because we received “inangayan” from these candidates.
Let us also pray for a peaceful elections and also for peaceful turn-over to the next administration. May our heated debates on Facebook be put behind after May 9. Let us all unite together as a country, no matter what our beliefs, origins, religion, affiliation or opinion.
But the work doesn’t end when the elected officials are declared. It is just the beginning. Let us all contribute to the improvement of our nation in our own small ways. Let us all work for peace and hopefully end the conflict that has been there for decades.
Lastly, let us all remain vigilant against abuses of government and do our part in order to make this country even better.
PPCRV Volunteers Perform Dry Run of Parallel Count System
PPCRV volunteers led by Fr. Felix Warli Salise performed a dry run of the parallel count system for Bohol local election results on May 7, 2016 at the CAD Laboratory at the Holy Name University in Dampas, Tagbilaran City. The parallel count system is developed and maintained by volunteer developers and trainees from Auza.Net.
There were more than 30 volunteers who showed up for the dry run and the organizers are expecting more volunteers help ensure the sanctity of the electoral process. On May 9, the volunteers are expected to start to encode the results from the printed election returns from each precinct all over the province of Bohol. They may need to work for about a week or until the last available election return is retrieved.
The system was developed during the 2013 elections by volunteer developers and was updated to accommodate the changes required for the 2016 elections. Auza.Net technology consultant Jerome Auza hopes to be able to have access to the per precinct data from the transparency server provided by COMELEC on May 9 onward. This is in order to to have a closed loop comparison between the printed election returns and the transmitted data to COMELEC. This way, PPCRV will be able to conclude that the data transmitted are exactly the same as that on the election returns.
The PPCRV helps to prevent election fraud by making sure that the tally at the municipal, district, provincial and national levels match with what is reported by COMELEC.
However, this process cannot detect fraud if the results are pre-programmed on the vote counting machines. To detect this kind of fraud, the random manual count audit is performed. In order for the audit to be effective, the precincts to be selected for audit must be selected using a process that can be observed by PPCRV, NAMFREL and the representatives of the political parties. The selection should also be done after the election returns are transmitted to COMELEC so that there is no more opportunity to change the results.
RISK
Those who claim they play decent chess are a bounty. They are a dime for a dozen.
Those who do not claim however are few. And they are to be feared.
By their sweet disguise, they have successfully let down their foes’ guards enough to orchestrate a gambit and ultimately ruling the boards with a checkmate.
In the most recent developments in the upcoming polls, the man whom, many self-proclaimed political pundits tag as uncouth in language, immoral in ways and unstatesman in manner played a gambit.
It was a gamble he was sure could expose the weakness in the opponents’ defenses. And when it did, we expect him now enjoying the spoils like what every successful businessman would do. He did not.
While he could be sipping margaritas in a resort in Samal after he successfully cornered his Trillions; he stayed low.
Kill time was at hand and at the sign of a tilt, the bishops, the horses and the rooks moved in for the kill.
Just as the key pieces jumped in for the kill, Duterte’s daring move also exposed where the fire was coming.
And from there, the people saw the snipers from their high perch, and then, just like every sad telenovela, the viewers took the attack like it is for them.
So, instead of putting the man down, the attack enthroned him even farther, nearly doubling in the lead against his closest rival.
His move was a classic overkill of the pretentious in us.
While continually raving high in surveys, presidential front runner candidate Rodrigo Duterte fed fodder to the already dried brains of his opponents enough to burn them and their rabid supporters.
At least, this man who is rousing a hornets nest by his unpopular pronouncements, is supposed to be treated as trash in a game where every candidate desperately paints ultra clean image of self.
The fact is, he leaves everyone with self projected clean image like trash, despised and fittingly disposed. And we wonder why.
A known fiscal who picks a job representing the state in stamping out criminals, presidential survey front-runner Rodrigo Duterte, may have brought the fight out of the courts by throwing his hat late into the presidential fray.
Maybe the desperation in the way the courts work in this country did it for him and that augers well for electors with asphyxiated hope for change in the way things are running.
What is certain however is, in a city that’s has seen so much of the loony status quo of crimes and optional punishment, the fiscal used the harsh hand of the law to beat out a system that straightened out the bent system, at least in Davao.
The usual “if you can’t beat them, join them” seemingly works not for the man whose decision to transform Davao into exhibit number one in good governance is damning evidence.
Over allegations of using extra judicial killings, the alarmists including those who claim to be morally upright members of the Catholic Church howled.
Seeing this as a potential take down move, the opportunistic candidates all to eager to collect on the Duterte spoils joined in the barking bout.
Too bad for them, the gambit worked by exposing even the media oligarchs of their wrecked and tarnished stances of bias and whatever-it-is-called but objectivity.
So what do we have?
A guy who would not pass for a saint, not one ordinarily fancied as a political animal that oligarchs can tame.
He is one brilliant chess player who can exact a checkmate from the worst situation and force a stalemate from an attack.
In a country immersed in a tangle like this, it’s not a saint or an animal we need.
Picking him is a risk, and risking gets us somewhere.
A typical victory parade for Duterte in Sorsogon
SORSOGON CITY – It was just another typical victory parade for Mayor Rodrigo Duterte.
Security personnel found their hands full turning back overzealous supporters after his chopper landed at the Balogo Sports Complex.
After the usual round of photo ops, Duterte’s caravan was met by a cheering throng just outside the complex gates.
Chants of the “Duterte!” filled the air, competing with the honking of motorcycles whose drivers would join the motorcade to the rally venue.
Applause and clenched fists raised along the way delivered the message that Duterte was in friendly territory. No one could miss the connection between candidate and his supporters.
Traffic grounded to a halt but the smiles of approval reassured Duterte that there were hardly any complaints for the minor inconvenience. After all, it was not everyday that the man who has become the symbol of change was in town.
Indeed, if there were spies from enemy camps around, they must have gritted their teeth in envy at the spontaneous red carpet welcome given Duterte.
If these people heard of the ridiculous accusations hurled at Duterte, they did not show it.
If they did, this was an unmistakable rebuke at the purveyors of lies out to derail the man they look up to as their last card against illegal drugs, criminalities and corruption.
Like nearly all of his sorties, the heat was unforgiving. And like all of his rallies, his supporters didn’t allow it to deprive them of the privilege to see him up close and personal.
At the first sound of Duterte’s voice, pandemonium broke loose at the rally site at the Provincial Capitol Park.
Eager to get a glimpse of their candidate, the crowd jeered at the privileged ones on stage with him, proof that they were here for him – and not for anything else.
Duterte delivered virtually the same speech he gave in all of his previous rallies which shows the universality of his message.
Except for some revisions every now and then, Duterte gave this audience the same treatment he gave the rest.
Duterte briefly responded to the plethora of accusations thrown at him, a man secure in the thought that his people are solidly behind him.
He did not show any irritation even when his enemies had thrown everything at him. Defiant and unbowed, Duterte explained why he did not immediately respond to the allegations.
When he said he did it on purpose because he want all those who wanted him destroyed to fall into the trap, the crowd roared in approval. It must have been agonizing for them then. It is a pleasant relief to hear Duterte wiggle himself out of it with ease.
The political rock star indulged his audience several minutes more after a howl of protest met his announcement that he would not be staying long.
It was only natural for one who was on the campaign trail to indulge the people he came here for.
On the other hand, no one can begrudge the people of Sorsogon the privilege of holding on to him as long as they can.
In all certainty, Duterte will no longer be a candidate more than a week from now.
Unless the cheaters prevail, he will be president the next time he comes to visit them.
BAD SCRIPT
It would be a week from now and the people’s singular chance to write what they want for the country happens.
And in the last days of the campaign, expect the heat to escalate, because right now, we have not seen the toilet bowl flung as yet.
At least, the past few days have been so revealing.
In no way will a desperation move to dislodge the presidential front runner be a job of a hao Hsiao, as can be seen by the blatant use of exactly the same tactics which this government used on its perceived enemies.
Take this for example.
When then Supreme Court Justice Renato Corona awarded the P1.3 billion Hacienda Luisita to some 6,000 farmers, did we forget that bank documents just suddenly showed up.
Now, these documents seemed spurious, but nobody asked why and how somebody could just pick a bank account record and put it out.
Succeeding bank accounts which suddenly and interestingly opened by themselves to the public revealed Corona had allegedly $130 million dollars in foreign banks.
Not that it was entirely true, or Corona could have been romancing cold metal bars instead.
While CJ Corona got impeached, courtesy of the “honorables” who were given millions in fattened pork barrel, but no court has ever got him jailed for keeping a lifetime of savings.
Corona died a few days ago, confident he has finally rested his case.
Ergo, everything else has been a perception game tied to a P1.3 billion sugarcane plantation tilled by 6000 farmers, and a timed Malacanang controversy called the DAP.
Earlier, there was former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, whom the official residence along the Pasig River accused of plunder over the P366 million Philippine Charity Sweepstakes funds.
Other than the inconvenience of being detained at the Veterans Memorial medical Center and the pestering illness, the courts have yet to finally determine her culpability.
And then, when vice Presidential aspirant Bongbong Marcos surged high, all the administration forces and their allies had their cannons all shooting volleys at the former presidential son.
On these three cases, two have their specific peculiarities.
CJ Corona and now presidential run-away leader Rodrigo Duterte have suddenly become trial by publicity victims courtesy of illegally obtained documents, which, with expert scrutiny would reveal as fake.
Bank secrecy law was desecrated in both and in many other cases and pick on the Trillianes lie? When were you, born yesterday?
While patterns interestingly pop in CJ Corona and Duterte’s cases, the unmistakable link of an idiot whose demolition job operation is as flimsy as a bald head with not enough nutrients to support a hairis rather telling.
Too bad, the script they used in Bongbong Marcos, Gloria Arroyo, and CJ Corona have all been used, the uncanny semblance is unbelievable.
It tells rather that whosoever directs the demolition job against Duterte has run out of good scripts.
The problem of these run-down plots: when people start memorizing the lines, chances are, they all too know how they can all come up with a surprising end, the director can not do anything about.
COMELEC Random Manual Count Audit Can be Manipulated
By: Jerome Auza
To my dismay, COMELEC again decided to select and announce the precincts that will be manually audited before completion of the election process on May 9, 2016. In the 2013 elections, the random manual count audit precincts were known two days before. This year, they will be known in the morning of May 9.
The vote counting machine.
Why am I dismayed? Simple, if the precincts for random manual count audit are known before the actual casting of ballots and printing of results, there is still a chance of electronic cheating that cannot be detected even with NAMFREL and PPCRV doing a parallel tally. A clever programmer can simply add code in the vote counting machine (VCM) to activate a routine that would check if the VCM is included in the RMA list. If it is included, it will count the real votes so that the manual count audit and the election returns will match.
If the VCM is not included in the list, then the VCM will simply output a pre-programmed result on the print outs and on the data that it will send to COMELEC and other recipients. The list can exist somewhere in the network that the VCMs can connect to.
The window of opportunity to do output the rigged results is the time between the VCM goes online and before the election returns are printed. This is possible because once the VCM can go online, it can already check if it is included in the list for audit.
The RMA is supposed to prevent cheating in the ballot counting. It could do that job if the selection of the precincts for audit is done after the VCMs have submitted the results electronically. This is because all precincts may be subject to RMA and once the results are sent out, these can no longer be changed. All precincts must have correct count otherwise there is risk that the RMA will be able to find discrepancies in the counts.
In addition, the selection of the precincts for audit is done using a “program”, most likely a computer program. This opens up another opportunity to cheat because who knows if the output of the program is already predetermined? In 2010, this was done through a joint effort by COMELEC, NAMFREL and PPCRV. In that election, the RMA was done correctly and did its purpose.
It is my hope that even with this possibility of cheating, COMELEC can handle all the work that needs to be done. To pull off the cheating I described above, there should be at least one very clever programmer with privileged access to the systems, a go signal from the top level people at COMELEC and lots of cash for motivation.
Whoever gets elected, the citizens must accept it. However, any form of manipulation of the results will not be good for the country.
Unstoppable Rody
THIS ISN’T ABOUT DUTERTE;
IT’S FRUSTRATION, DISGUST
By Manny Piñol
This is a phenomenon which social and political scientists will have to seriously study in the future, this bizarre spectacle of people who wait for hours just to see a man who has been the subject of endless media attacks and vilification campaign.
Yesterday in Cavite, a province with 1.8-million voters, people waited for four hours and many more, who hoped that presidential frontrunner Rody Duterte would pass their way, stayed up until midnight.
This was the scene even after five days of relentless attacks on Duterte over his controversial narrative on the rape and killing of an Australian preacher 27 years ago, his verbal jousts with the envoys of the US and Australia, his foul language and even a psychological report pilfered from the documents related to the annulment of his marriage with Elizabeth Zimmerman, mother of his three older children.
I can just imagine the consternation of those who are desperately splurging hundreds of millions of pesos for an endless media campaign against Duterte seeing the size of the crowd steadily growing in the most unlikely places.
Bacolod, Iloilo, Aklan and yesterday Cavite. These areas were previously considered “unfriendly territories.”
Bacolod, Iloilo and Aklan are acknowledged Liberal Party (LP) playgrounds where Manuel Roxas III is supposed to be the favorite but the crowds came and rooted for the Guest Team.
Cavite was the garden Vice President Jejomar Binay tended to for several years now watering the local political leaders with cash.
The province was his until his local partners, the powerful Remulla political clan apparently slighted by the actions of Binay’s children, decided to call it quits and left the garden open for other harvesters.
Based on the number and enthusiasm of the crowd yesterday, it looks like Cavite will go to Duterte with or without the political gardeners.
So with a little over two weeks left in the campaign, Duterte faces his date with destiny with over 60% of Mindanao’s 12 million voters behind him, over 50% of Cebu’s 2.8-million voters, 34% of Metro Manila’s 6-million plus voters and now the prospect of winning majority of Cavite’s 1.8-million electorates.
Adding to the headache of his political opponents is the result of the recent ABS-CBN commissioned Pulse Asia survey for the period April 12 to 17 which showed Duterte at 34%, twelve full percentage points ahead of Grace Poe Llamanzares whose numbers continued to drop.
Binay comes in third with 20% while Roxas remained in fourth place with 18%.
Roxas, whose group along with Binay’s, is believed to be behind the black propaganda blitz against Duterte, is not expected to move up as many of his allies are now deserting him.
The most recent loss for Roxas was Gov. Joey Salceda of Albay who joined Poe’s camp. Many others are expected to leave the LP as the election draws near.
So what is it with Duterte that he seems to have a Kevlar body armour that makes him almost unaffected by the attacks?
Maybe, just maybe, this is not really about or because of Duterte.
This could be about the people themselves. They may have reached a point of frustration with government and the system that they have become numbed and hardheaded.
They do not want to listen anymore, not to Duterte’s foul language or his opponents vicious attacks.
They have chosen Duterte because they see him as the uncouth, foul-mouthed, rough and tough guy who will watch over them and their children as they sleep peacefully at night.
This episode in the history of our country and our people could be a good case study for social scientists on human behaviour and for political scientists to determine at what point of government corruption, inefficiency, unchecked criminality and drugs-proliferation do people’s emotions reach a melting point.
This is the Duterte Syndrome.
Reposted with permission from Manny Piñol.
(Photos of Cavite crowd downloaded from the Facebook page of Noel Landera Sarifa and a Duterte supporter; Novaliches crowd photos taken by Charles Maxey. Only one photo is used in this article but the original post had several photos.)
Click Prio Tops Startup Weekend Bohol 2
Click Prio topped the recently concluded Startup Weekend Bohol 2 (SWB2) held last April 15-17, 2016 at the Bohol Island State University in Tagbilaran City. ClickPrio gives patients access to their doctors with a tap of a button. It is an online queuing system specifically designed for hospitals and clinics.
The Startup Weekend is a 54 hour all action event where participants pitch an idea, and teams are formed to work on the ideas that have the highest votes. The SWB2 had 8 teams completing the event out of 8 selected ideas.
At 2nd place is Nice Cat, which is a pet merchandise brand that sells products for cats, cat owners, and cat lovers. With the creation of a lovable brand, a cast of compelling characters, and a business model in reverse to the likes of Disney and Pixar, it hopes to rule the industry with it’s furry goodness.
E-Trike Tours offers a cost-effective, environmentally-friendly, authentically local option to tourists. Standard rates (no overcharging), friendly drivers and your safety assured. They teach drivers the value of doing sustainable business: offering good service, good rates and taking care of their customers.
The teams were advised by the following mentors: Robin Gurney of ANDAKIDZ, Thomas Ridenour, a React Native Mobile Developer, Dan Pantinople, a Creative Lead of Symph, Paolo Rigotti of Gelateria Milano and Sharon Sesaldo of TechTalks.PH.
The judges for the competition are as follows: Albert Padin, Chief Technical Officer of Symph, Pip Cimafranca, a Senior Ops Manger, and Aimee Lim of Gerarda’s.
The event lead organizer is Ashley Uy of Symph and Jay Paul Aying of Bagol Labs, and were assisted by Jane Alcantara of Auza.Net, Ben Skelton, Charles Barette of Fab Lab, Ms. Lai Biliran of The Bohol ICT Council and Zion Campo of Tarsier Times.
The facilitators of SWB2 are Goldy Yancha of Ideaspace and Angel Abella of TechTalks.PH.
PH Economy Improvement: When did it start?
By: Jerome Auza
I cringe every time I see a chart on my Facebook wall showing economy indicators “improving” during the Pres. Benigno Aquino administration. The way most of these charts are shown do indicate that a lot has improved in this administration, which is true, by the way. The problem is that these charts are not showing a complete picture and oftentimes fail to show the achievements by the previous administration.
You see, I deal with charts and charts data every day of my professional life. And with the computerized tools currently available for anyone to generate charts and publish them, it is easy to intentionally or unintentionally mislead the readers by showing a chart to highlight an improvement.
So I raise an eyebrow if I see telltale signs that a chart can be misleading. For example, someone declared that “Unemployment, went down consistently. From 7.3% in GMA’s administration, to 5.8% now.” Then the graph in Figure 1 is shown:
Figure 1. PH Unemployment rate from 2006 to 2016. Source: Tradingeconomics.com, Bureau of the Treasury, Philippines
What’s wrong with this chart is that the percentage numbers shown do not start from zero and thus you see a zoomed in line which shows a downward trend. It shows that the unemployment rate improved in 2010, when Aquino became president. But what if we look at all the data from further back? In Figure 2, we see a longer trend from 1996.
PH Unemployment rate from 1996 to 2016. Source: Tradingeconomics.com, Bureau of the Treasury, Philippines
The biggest drop in unemployment rate happened in 2005. Is this because of GMA’s achievement in generating jobs at that time? It’s hard to say because the unemployment definition was changed at that time. The old definition of unemployed considered only two criteria:
1) Without work and looking for work; or
2) Without work and not looking for work due to valid reasons.
And the current definition consists of persons in the labor force who are reported as (1) without work; and (2) currently available for work; and (3) seeking work or not seeking work because of the belief that no work is available, or awaiting results of previous job application, or because of temporary illness or disability, bad weather or waiting for rehire or job recall. The new definition of unemployed was adopted starting April 2005 per NSCB Resolution No. 15 dated October 20, 2004
One thing is clear though: that from 2005, the unemployment rate is trending down already and towards 2016, it seems to go downward faster. Perhaps if the 2008 worldwide financial crisis didn’t happen, we could have even better unemployment numbers.
So in short, the unemployment number was trending down already prior to 2010 and the Aquino administration maintained the downward trend and possibly increased the downward rate towards 2016. So it is right that the unemployment numbers improved in Aquino’s administration. It should also worth mentioning that the improvement started in GMA’s administration.
We see similar thing happening for GDP. Figure 3 shows the GDP from 2006 while Figure 4 shows GDB from 1960. The GDP rise started in 2002, went down a bit in 2010 and continued the trend upwards after that. If you look only at Figure 3, you will conclude that Aquino did a very good job in improving the GDP. However, if you look at Figure 4, the trend started in GMA’s time and it just simply continued the trend. Also, it seems that in 2014, the trend upwards may have started to slow down. We will know for sure after the 2015 data will be available.
Figure 3. PH GDP from 1996 to 2014. Source: Tradingeconomics.com, Bureau of the Treasury, Philippines
Figure 4. PH GDP from 1960 to 2014. Source: Tradingeconomics.com, Bureau of the Treasury, Philippines
And my last example is the PH Debt to GDP ratio. Figure 5 shows an apparently very significant improvement during Aquino’s administration, approximately 7 points improvement. However, Figure 6 shows that the biggest improvement in that ratio happened in GMA’s administration, around 20 points from the highest point until 2010 and the trend just continued in Aquino’s administration.
PH Debt to GDP Ration from 1996 to 2015. Source: Tradingeconomics.com, Bureau of the Treasury, Philippines
PH Debt to GDP Ration from 1990 to 2015. Source: Tradingeconomics.com, Bureau of the Treasury, Philippines
In summary, one should be careful not to be misled by a chart that do not show a complete picture. Charts are supposed to communicate a lot of information quickly but an incorrectly drawn chart could be misleading. In politics, it is common practice to tout an achievement by showing partial information on a chart. Watch out for zoomed in data as it would be difficult to assess the relative values on the timeline. This is especially true for long term trends like the economic indicators of the country.
In conclusion, it is very obvious that the significant improvements in the economic indicators started to improve significantly during GMA’s term and continued on by the Aquino administration. Both administrations should be commended for successfully improving our economy. Hopefully such trend will continue as the next president takes over later this year.
